Jason Franklin, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service's Buffalo Forecast Office (NWS BUF), will give a presentation about the week of November 17–21, 2014, remembered as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo's snowy history.
Composed of two closely-spaced but separate crippling lake effect snow events, some areas of Western New York eventually ended up with nearly seven feet of snow while locales just to the north measured only a few inches.
The NWS BUF successfully forecast this epic event using a combination of local, regional, and national expertise and research.
This presentation will highlight the guidance and expertise that went into forecasting this event: local records combined with online analogs, climate ensembles, locally developed climatology, high-resolution local and national models, and locally generated tools.
The presentation will also look into three factors that accentuated the dramatic difference in snowfall over such a short distance: 1.) The sharp gradient in snowfall as observed in the reflectivity from the Buffalo WSR-88D radar on the northern edge of the lake effect snow band; 2.) The nearly stationary position of the band for almost 24 hours; and 3.) The very intense snowfall rates of three-to-five inches per hour.
This presentation is part of the WNY Chapter of the American Meteorological Society's fall 2015 seminar series, hosted by the Buffalo State Geography and Planning Department's meteorology and climatology program.
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